Letters from Baghdad
As you watch the frenzied debate that is ongoing in Washington that will do nothing but accelerate for at least the next two months, ask yourself some questions:
1. Do my politicians feel so strongly about their position because they believe in it, or are they simply motivated by re-election?
2. Are the political leaders thoughtful enough to listen to Ambassador Crocker and GEN Petraeus in September, or is this just another venue for rhetoric?
3. Why do I feel so strongly about my position?
a. Loss of American lives? I do mourn every loss and have lost close friends here, however, we lose five times as many teenagers on the highway every year (2006 rate was 5200) than soldiers in Iraq, (900- 1000 annually from March 2003-July 2007). Do you let your kids drive? Maybe not a fair comparison, but an illustrative comparison none-the-less.
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b. Cost? The total cost of the war to date is less than one percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product for the same period (~$11 trillion GDP vs. ~ $100 billion annually in Iraq).
4. What will happen if we pull out?
a. Will Iran develop nuclear weapons unchecked? Will they use them?
b. Will Al-Qaeda have another safe-haven in the heart of the Middle East?
c. Will the sectarian violence spread through the region?
d. Will Iraq be able to sustain its efforts towards peaceful co-exis- tence with itself and neighbors?
5. How are we doing, and is this reasonable?
6. Is this something we need to finish? Why?
I hope you can each appreciate that we are subjected to a very slanted media and political effort to shape our opinion. If you accept the premise that all war is bad, but some war is necessary, I think that better frames the discussion. I also look at dissecting the past during an event by the participants as an unproductive exercise. Historians will have plenty of time to write about this war.
To me, the past is a sunk cost and should not materially affect our future actions. Our future actions should be based solely on an analysis of where we are now, where we need to go, and what cost we can afford or are willing to pay. That cost should not only be measured in loss of life, ours and others, or dollars, but also the cost
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in terms of long-term security, access to vital resources or markets, furtherance of nation objectives and interests, our long-term reputa- tion and ability to act in our interests in the region, and how it shapes the world we live in.
I am also a skeptic. I believe many mistakes were made, some acts of commission, some acts of omission. I do believe it was in our best long-term interests to come here. I believe there were valid reasons for it, but these were not clearly articulated or used. I do not believe our leadership gives the population sufficient credit to understand and support seemingly esoteric or transcended issues, preferring to reduce them into easy to accept and digestible soundbites that are not necessarily accurate or compelling, i.e., “Saddam has WMD” or “Saddam and Al-Qaeda are in cooperation.”
I think the initial operations were sized and organized based on a “Blue centric” or kinetic view of the coming conflict, ignoring the long history of the region, Iraq and counterinsurgency. To me, none of this is relevant to the ongoing debate. Let history judge our lead- ership and predecessors, save analysis of previous decisions for the classroom, after the fact. Today we must deal with the issue of a campaign within a broader war that has been ongoing for almost six and five years, respectively. We must understand that we are facing a current and emergent threat that is amorphous, decentralized, persistent, and insidious. Just as we face a difficult, expensive, and long road ahead, we must also appreciate opportunity as it presents itself. We are truly in a situation akin to that experienced by Thomas Paine in The Crisis papers 1776 -1783 as he wrote about the compelling need for American independence.
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“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will . . . shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.”
We are indeed in a trying time, unlike we have seen for two genera- tions, but if the coin of the realm is measured in the blood of its youth, we have spent a precious but small payment for our expected return.
We are currently at war in a country and region that has no history of freedom or democratic institutions. This region, its people and resources are the greatest asset and liability in the world today. Throughout the past century, our only interface has been to exploit those resources. Western culture and Muslim culture have waged war with each other for over 1400 years. Today, we have the oppor- tunity to show these people we want more for them than we want from them. We have a chance to help shape a society that will find its own course, but it will undoubtedly be a course that is more compatible with our own than the one it has been on. Most impor- tantly, we can help the Muslim world joining the rest of the world in a harmonious and productive manner instead of the currently destructive and nihilistic approach they are pursuing.
The questions are, are we brave enough, and do we have the patience and perseverance to finish the task? This is NOT Vietnam, our nation has been attacked, we are being attacked, the similarities are coincidental and inconsequential. Yes, I do link Iraq with the global war on terrorism. The initiation was tangential at best, but we chose the killing fields, and they joined the fight,
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so it is here now, it is relevant, and I still prefer to do it here than in Iowa.
I firmly believe there is no doubt that we can be successful in Iraq. I define success as an Iraq with public institutions that function effec- tively for all of its citizens, a security force that maintains an accept- able level of domestic security, allows for its wealth to be enjoyed by all citizens, and is at peace with itself and its neighbors.
There are brave Iraqis fighting for their country. The Iraqi Security Forces are losing three people for every one we lose. They are inter- cepting and stopping MOST suicide bombers, usually at the cost of their own lives, but they do not abandon checkpoints or shirk their duty. You hear and read about the one in ten attacks that is success- ful, not the nine that were stopped. Everything here is fragile and needs to be nurtured and given the chance to grow. We can give them that chance, but it will take years.
There has not been a spark of creativity in the Middle East for many centuries. There is, however, a strong and deep tradition of arts, literature, architecture, and science. The Islamic culture missed out on the Renaissance and Industrial Revolution and has been playing poor colony to Western powers for over a century. Recently that tradition has been overcome by destructive forces that have lashed outward and inward, threatening everyone.
Our efforts may be important in a re-birth of a great Arab culture starting in Iraq. Our efforts here are as much about restoring good- ness and hope in this portion of the world as it was about defeating Saddam. We are still considered occupiers. We must show the great- ness to succeed and then leave, rather than leave under anything
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resembling defeat. Defeat only comes if we choose it. This is a unique American tradition. We will either be the agents of change or the source of more intractable hatred, the choice is ours.
I do think we need a bigger military. Our force, although deter- mined, is worn out. Most of the soldiers I saw on the way home were heading for R&R and all were on their second or third rota- tions; all expecting subsequent rotations. I fully expect to redeploy within a year of returning home, I do not look forward to it but am prepared for it. Domestically, we have grown fat, lazy, and opulent and judge important events by their level of inconvenience on our personal lives. We have, however, grown a generation of young people who will take this nation and world by storm like our grand- parents did after the second World War.
We continue to be blessed with a core of brave, clear-eyed, tough young people who have, and continue to, answer the war tocsin. Staying with the WWII theme, I look at the vision we had after defeating the Axis in the second World War. History would have taught us to visit vengeance on Japan, Germany, and Italy. Instead, we overcame history and our own allies and helped build strong democracies with robust economies that brought great stability, sparked the global economy, and created strong alliances. Central Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace in history, thanks largely to how we supported them after WWII. Although not a direct comparison, how we support and transition Iraq after defeating Saddam will be crucial to ushering a period of progress and change in the Muslim world. This mission is the great challenge and under- taking for our times. I hope we have the courage and resolve our grandparents had after they defeated the Axis.
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On Tuesday, my boss served as part of the delegation that met with the Iranians. They had a tough seven-hour session. He was prepped to go in and lay out clearly what they are doing in Iraq. It is one of those discussions where you go, “Hey look, we know what you are doing, you know what you are doing, you know we know what you are doing, so stop denying it. If you are serious, you will take posi- tive steps to stop arming, funding, and training terrorists.”
I understand there were some heated exchanges. We need frank, open dialogue with the Iranians. They are known as tough negotia- tors, even in the Arab world, but we need to talk with them. We need to speak from a position of strength, not one of asking them to help us so we can get out of there. Our perceived weakness will encourage them to increase their support for Jaysh al-Mahdi secret cells with arms, money, and training. The Iranians are pursuing a goal of regional hegemony seeking to limit our influence, develop nuclear weapons, and spread Islamic revolution. The model employed by Lebanese Hezbollah has been successful: provide services the government has failed to do, create a strong militia that provides security the government has failed to provide, and avoid direct participation in the government to deflect and avoid sharing criticisms for government failures until they are able to consolidate power on their terms in the future.
We are watching this happen in Lebanon. If we are not careful, Iran will be successful using the same model in Iraq. We must force the Sadrist movement to become accountable and part of the process. Al-Qaeda is defeated in Iraq, their message is dead, they are now no longer a threat to take over anything, even though they remain dangerous and destructive. We will, with the partnership of the
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Iraqis, drive Al-Qaeda out of Iraq. The danger comes from the popular support to the rogue or secret cell side of the Sadrist move- ment. This is indigenous and far more dangerous to long-term stability.
We defeat this movement by building institutions that answer the needs of the citizenry, exposing the Iranian connection and pushing Iraqi legal channels to deal with domestic troublemakers from all sects. All of this takes time, and the domestic institutions are not yet strong enough to fight off the challenges they face. If we do not stay with them, they will fail, and Iraq will be mired in some third world quasi-anarchy for years to come. We will be left wondering what happened and spending our energy on revisionist history trying to place blame. We can and will be successful, Iraq will prosper, the neighboring countries will see what democratic institutions and a free-market system can bring, and they will see us in a very different light.
I look forward to a quiet weekend with my family. Next week I will fly to Washington State, start the process of enrolling my son in the University of Washington, attend my thirtieth high school reunion, and share some time with my family. I will return and get right to work as the new Chief of Staff for the 1st Infantry Division “Duty First” and look forward to my next great adventure.
I think it is time for me to close this installment. My relevance and knowledge of this subject has already begun to deteriorate, so I will soon be like all the other arm-chair pundits throwing stones at those who have rolled up their sleeves and have gotten about the work of doing something.
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The world is made up of three kinds of people; those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who wonder what happened. For the past year, I have been fortunate enough to spend time with those who make things happen. For that I am thankful. For your support and patience, I am equally thankful. But I am most thankful for the blessings of my country, family, friends and, most of all, God. I wish His blessings on each of you.
“If a man is judged by the quality of the company he keeps, then I am indeed wealthy.” Bob Hope, May 1981
